Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Schwarzenegger has to cut costs

Schwarzenegger has to cut costs

How Will Schwarzenegger correct the California budget deficit?

The main reason that Gray Davis was recalled in California is the budget deficit for which he is largely held responsible. Now Arnold has vowed to make the budget his first priority.

This morning he said, "We don't know exactly what the current operating deficit is. It went from $7 billion to $8 billion to $10 billion and just this morning I found out if this court case goes wrong, it could go to $20 billion."

He was referring to a lawsuit that would stop the state from issuing bonds to fund the current state deficit.

I admire the fact that Arnold wants to comply with the law, and work towards a balanced budget for California, but anyone in business knows that there are two ways to close a deficit. They are 1.) Increase revenues and 2.) Decrease expenditures.

There are a couple of glaring problems with Arnold's "plan":

1. Arnold has vowed not to raise taxes, and to abolish the recently passed auto licensing fee which nearly tripled the auto taxes in California. The auto tax was expected to bring in somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 billion, an amount that would significantly reduce the debt. This means that not only will Gov. Elect Schwarzenegger not be able to increase revenues, he is starting even farther "behind the eight-ball" than expected.
2. There are only a few ways to decrease expenditures. Arnold could eliminate government jobs, which I am sure will go over very well. He could decrease correctional agency funding, perhaps by releasing non-violent offenders into parole. Ofcourse, the health and human services funding makes up 28% of the state's budget. I'm sure everyone would understand if Arnold cuts health and human services... which brings me to the real reason that I began writing this evening:

There is a great liklihood that health and human services budgets will be cut. We cannot forget that Schwarzenegger is a Republican. "Privatization" is the mantra. What will happen to the elderly who depend on state-run programs as a major part of their lives?

While it may be too late for them, it is important that we all take some time to prepare for our own future. You never know when a less-than-qualified candidate will be chosen to make the tough decisions that directly affect your life. Long Term Care Insurance puts the reigns of your life back into your hands. Don't rely on the compassion of the politicians in power.

Monday, October 22, 2007

EUR/USD Fluctuations Continue

EUR/USD retraced back to 1.4200 level today after some very disappointing housing data came out in U.S. Overall situation continues to remain uncertain with the EUR/USD ranging between 1.4050 and 1.4250. It now formed a clear plateau pattern on the daily chart marking some major break in the Euro vs. Dollar struggle.

Housing report for September showed a further downfall in this economics sector with the decrease in both housing starts and building permits numbers exceeding pessimistic market forecasts. There were 1,191k housing starts (against 1,285k expected) and 1,226k new building permits (against 1,300k expected) this September.

Contrary to real estate sector bad news September CPI report showed a better than expected value - 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and that's from the -0.1% in August.

Crude oil inventories report for the October 8-12 week showed a major increase in commercial oil inventories - 1.8 million barrels, which can easily compensate for the previous decrease by 1.67 million barrels.

Dollar Takes More Beating

Today U.S. dollar continued its way down the Forex market to historical bottoms of its rate against Euro currency. With EUR/USD hitting its new historical maximum at 1.4309, there is a little doubt now that dollar will stop euro reaching and breaking 1.4500 level. This is mainly caused by bad U.S. data coming out last weeks, which might mean another Fed rate cut by the end of the month.

First strike on dollar bulls was delivered today by the initial jobless claims report for the past week with 29k increase from the previous week - to 337k. Then the leading indicators by the Conference Board Inc. came out showing a 0.3% growth, which appeared as expected. But it is a very weak indicator that doesn't mean a lot to Forex traders usually.

Second strike was Philladelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey showed a very strong decrease in the diffusion index of current activity from 10.9 in September to 6.8 in October, whereas even pessimistic market analysts were expecting to see 7.0 value.

To sum it up - it is a bad time to be long on dollar, but good to be long on EUR/USD.

Common Sense Guidelines for the Average Trader

Look for a reputable brokerAbility to trade effectively depends on consistent spreads and ample liquidityAnyone can establish a positionAbility to close out a position at a fair market price is more importantLive to trade another dayApply prudent money management skillsAvoid using excessive leverage that puts your investment capital at riskAlways trade with a stop!Don�t trade emotionally, stick to your plan and maintain disciplineEstablish a trading plan before initiating a tradeSet reasonable risk/reward parametersDon�t override your stops for emotional reasonsDon�t react to price action � means don�t buy just because it looks cheap or sell because it looks too high, Have supporting evidence to back up your tradeDon�t puntDon't punt ( Punting is trading for trading sake without a view)Don�t leave stops at obvious levels such as �big figures� (e.g. eur/usd 1.20, usd/jpy 110)i.e. JUBBS stops = stops at obvious levels and thus are more likely triggeredDon�t add to a losing position in unless it is part of a strategy to scale into a positionIn other words, don�t double up in the hope of recouping losses unless it is part of a broader trading strategyTrading with and against the trendWhen trading with a trend, consider the use of trailing stops.When trading against the trend, be disciplined taking profits and don�t hold out for the last pipTreat trading as a continuumDon�t base success on one tradeAvoid emotional highs or lows on individual tradesConsistency should be an objectiveForex trading is multi-currencyWatch crosses as they are key influences on spot tradingCrosses are one currency vs. another, such as eur/jpy (euro vs. jpy) or eur/gbp (eur vs. gbp)Crosses can be used as clues for direction for spot currencies even if you are not trading themBe cognizant of what news is coming out each day so you don�t get blindsidedBe cognizant of what news is coming out each day so you don�t get blindsidedBeware of trading just ahead of an economic number and be wary of volatility following key releasesBeware of illiquid marketsBeware of illiquid marketsAdjust strategies during holiday or pre-holiday periods to take into account thin liquidityBeware of central bank intervention in illiquid marketsJay Meisler, a partner in Global-View.com, says one problem of trading with too-high leverage is that one piece of surprise news can wipe out one's capital. "Those who treat forex trading as if they were in a casino will see the same long-term results as when they go to Las Vegas," he says, adding: "If you treat forex trading like a business, including proper money management, you have a better chance of success." �Newsweek International, March 15, 2004Treat this business as a marathon and not a sprint so you avoid burnout and maintain stamina for the long haul.

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and FocusMany new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.Jimmy Young

Sunday, October 14, 2007

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GBP/USD (autoupdate every 1:00 am [NY Time])
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BLUE = Buy Area (buy start at [High] 20 pips and take profit at [High] BreakOut) or +20 pips from buy start.
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Sunday, October 7, 2007

Register your online Forex trading Blog

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With the developing and growing blogging community you need to stay in touch with the world, especially in the Forex field, which requires up-to-date info and tips.

Come and read all the experiences of online forex trading from Forex broker and other bloggers and share some of your on in what is and will be one of the biggest Forex blogging community on the web.

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Latest Forex posts

The last time we had a market (Stock, not Forex) environment similar to that of today was 1968. There were riots at the Democratic convention, anti-war protests, fighting in Vietnam, runaway spending and anti-Johnson sentiment, yet the economy was expanding...
Read the entire forex post

News are the foundation stone of the fundamental analysis. Any market is influenced, in one way or another, by news and other economic indicators. The forex is the most allergic to news, especially for short term movements, due to the fact it is open almost 24 hours a day ...
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I can't believe how lucky I am. A few days ago I got this e-mail, explaining a thing or two about forex trading and the market in which it operates. Right away, I entered Google and searched for a few sites to read on and study about the forex trading a bit more. Within that day, I opened 3(!!!) demo accounts in 3 different forex sites....
Read the entire forex post

THE BEST SOURCE FOR ONLINE FOREX TRADING INFO BY FOREX BROKER AND FOREX TRADERS

Friday, October 5, 2007

bad-fundamentals-good-for-usd

While dollar continued to rebound its weak positions today after EUR/USD failing to break 1.4180 resistance, fundamental stats from United States again came out below expectations. And again this caused a dollar rally against the Euro currency. ISM report on business activity for September 2007 showed a decrease by 1% - from 55.8% to 54.8% - well below the pessimistic expectation of 55.0%. After this report dollar went high to its weekly minimum at 1.4130 and now continues to gain strength.

One fundamental news that helped dollar and wasn't negative is the increase of the commercial crude oil inventories by 1.2 million barrels last week. This is logical, since when commodity prices are decreasing, currency gain value. As to the reaction on ISM services index - bad fundamental data now scare stock market investors away, thus making them to cash out into dollars (giving it more demand).

carnival-of-forex-trading

Welcome to the October 4, 2007 edition of carnival of Forex trading. Only three quality Forex trading articles this time - definitely not too many. But they all are worth reading. No useless talking, but an interesting reading.

Thomas Ott presents A Review Of My Forex Trading posted at Neural Market Trends, saying, "I’m closing in on my 1 year anniversary of trading Forex my $100 Forex Experiment. I did really well ($ wise) in the beginning of the year only to get smacked hard between May and June."

Thomas Ott presents US Interest Rates VS Currencies | Neural Market Trends posted at Neural Market Trends, saying, "A quick analysis that shows long term correlation between US interest rates and currencies. Part of a brain tease."

Stirling Newberry presents Why the dollar is taking another beating now posted at The Agonist, saying, "The outlook for the US dollar is a constant and continued erosion, followed by an extended period where the dollar will be very weak compared to other currencies, until there are clear signs of a change in policy regime in the United States. The issue is confidence."

Thursday, October 4, 2007

What is Forex ???

Forex is an abbreviation of Foreign Exchange. It's a comparation between two different currency. For example : Euro vs US Dolar at position 1.3

It's mean that 1 Euro is equal to 1.3 US Dolar.
Generally, the name of currency are consist only three alphabet, for example EUR for Euro or USD for US Dolar or GBP for English Poundsterling.

Many people trading this kind of forex. But as usual investment, Forex is a typical of High Risk, High Gain invest. So, be carefull if you want to join this kind of investment.

Caution ! Never believe a company which can guarantee give you fixed interest from forex !
It's nonsense and impossible, because forex is the most fluctuated investment (beside stock index of course). So just be carefull ... Be a wiseman